How the Academy Votes

Branch nominations, the preferential ballot, why Best Picture is counted differently from every other category, and every confirmed date for the 99th Oscars.

The films and performances shaping the race to the 99th Oscars, from the Cannes results through the fall festival slate.

Why the guild awards dominate the model, how the three-stage pipeline adds signal through the season, and why leave-one-year-out validation makes the accuracy numbers hold up.