Modeling the world's most famous decisions.

Twelve people pick the NCAA field. Twenty-five pick the Hall of Fame class. About 10,000 pick the Oscars. None of them show their work, so I built models that try to.

Closed rooms pick the NCAA field, the Hall of Fame class and the Oscars. My models show their work.

Today's forecasts

Choose your default
Pro Football Hall of Fame
Class of 2027
Class of 2027 · ballot forming
Player
Induction Chance
AP
Adrian Peterson
RB · 2,097 Rush Yds
99.8%
RG
Rob Gronkowski
TE · 21 Playoff Wins
99.8%
JW
Jason Witten
TE · 11 Pro Bowls
99.3%
KW
Kevin Williams
DT · 5 1st-Team AP
97.7%
AB
Antonio Brown
WR · 11,263 Rec Yds
97.2%
TS
Terrell Suggs
OLB · 140 Sacks
88.3%
RW
Reggie Wayne
WR · 14,345 Rec Yds
86.2%
ET
Earl Thomas
FS · 32 INTs
77.0%
DS
Darren Sharper
FS · 59 INTs
63.0%
80.0%
See the projected class →
Updated Sep 25 80/85 clear the bar

The record

How each model has scored against the real decision so far.

How each model is built →
Paymon score
374/408
My 2026 bracket · 68-team format
Hall of Famers who clear the bar
80/85
Inductees with complete careers
Oscar winners called
79%
Core 6 categories · 1997+ · each year held out
On Bracket Matrix
16 yrs
Top 10 globally at my best

Context, then cases, then you.

  1. Learn the process

    Who is in the room and what they look at.

    The voters, the criteria and the calendar, in plain English, before any model shows up.

    Read a guide
  2. See it applied

    What the room weighs, run through real cases.

    The model works through this year's candidates and every past year, so you can see how it did. Each forecast links to how it's built.

    See a forecast
  3. Build in the studio

    Your turn.

    Build your own bracket, class or ballot from the same data the model uses. Save it, share it, and see how it scores when the real answer comes out.

    Open a studio

More on how the site works

Who's behind it

I'm Grant Hansell. I started filling out bracket projections because working out how the selection committee thinks was its own kind of fun, and I kept at it long enough that Bracket Matrix, at my best, ranked my projections in the global top ten. The Round Robin is what happened when I decided to build the tool I'd always wanted, and use it to model the Hall of Fame and the Oscars too.

I'm one person. I use AI to do work that used to take a whole team, which is how I keep three models running and keep shipping new tools on my own. It's open to everyone now.

Read the About page
Years in Bracket Matrix16
Best RankingTop 10 Global
Decisions Modeled3
Staff1