Modeling the world's most famous decisions.
Thanks for joining my Alpha. I hope you find the information engaging - I'd love to spark your data curiosity. But as you explore you'll also encounter things like bugs, poor writing, charts that don't make sense, and many other opportunities for improvement. Please, let me know by submitting your feedback below. Thanks for being here!
The Decisions
NCAA Bracket
How the NCAA committee actually builds the tournament field, how my bracket scored against the real one, and a studio to seed all 76 teams yourself with live data.
Explore NCAA Bracket →
Live Data
Hall of Fame
How the 50 selectors actually vote on the NFL Hall of Fame class, how closely HoFW tracks their judgment, and a studio to build your own ballot for any future class.
Explore Hall of Fame →
New
Oscars
How the Academy actually votes on the Oscars, and a forecast model scored against 30 years of ceremonies it never trained on. A build-your-own studio is coming soon.
Explore Oscars →
New
Women's Bracketology
The next category coming to The Round Robin, with the same process guide, model and studio for the NCAA women's tournament field. Coming next season.
Coming Next Season
Soon
How It Works
01
Learn the Process
See exactly how each committee makes its call, from the criteria they use to the calendar they run on.
02
Meet the Model
See how close my model actually gets, tested against real results it never trained on.
03
Build the Case
Make the calls yourself with the same data I use, then share the field, the class, or the ballot you built.
The Record So Far
The same questions the markets price, worked through in the open. Every forecast comes with the methodology behind it and the record of how it has actually done.
374 pts
Bracket · Paymon Score
of 408 possible · 2026 field
Exact seed line52 / 68
Field accuracy68 / 68
0.999 AUC
Hall of Fame · HoFW Accuracy
cross-validated vs. every class since 2005
Ballot-calibrated AUC0.895
Training set6,709 players
77% · Core 6, 1997+
Oscars · Winner Hit Rate
30 years of ceremonies, leave-one-year-out
2026 ceremony8 / 8 Big 8 categories
AUC-ROC0.900
Grant
I've been predicting the NCAA Tournament bracket for 16 years, long enough to reach the global Top 10 in Bracket Matrix. The Hall of Fame and Oscars models are built the same way, on the criteria the real voters use and calibrated against what actually happened. The Round Robin is where all of it lives.