Academy Awards History

The winner model uses precursor results from PGA, DGA, WGA, BAFTA, SAG, Golden Globes, Critics' Choice, NYFCC, and LAFCA. Coverage runs back to different years by award: PGA and DGA to 1997, WGA to 1970, acting categories to 1941 (Globe) and 1976 (SAG/LAFCA). Both screenplay categories score materially worse than the other six, around 46 to 47 percent against 54 to 79 percent, which is why the headline hit rate reports the Core 6 separately rather than pooling all eight into one number. All accuracy figures use leave-one-year-out cross-validation, so no year influences its own prediction.