Academy Awards History

The winner model uses precursor results from PGA, DGA, WGA, BAFTA, SAG, Golden Globes, Critics' Choice, NYFCC, LAFCA, the Gotham Awards, and the Independent Spirit Awards. Coverage runs back to different years by award: PGA and DGA to 1997, WGA to 1970, acting categories to 1941 (Globe) and 1976 (SAG/LAFCA). Both screenplay categories score lower than the other six, around 57 percent against 63 to 86 percent since 1997, which is why the headline hit rate reports the Core 6 separately rather than pooling all eight into one number. All accuracy figures use leave-one-year-out cross-validation, so no year influences its own prediction.