Academy Awards History

The winner model uses precursor results from PGA, DGA, WGA, BAFTA, SAG, Golden Globes, Critics' Choice, NYFCC, LAFCA, and the Independent Spirit Awards. Coverage runs back to different years by award: PGA and DGA to 1997, WGA to 1970, acting categories to 1941 (Globe) and 1976 (SAG/LAFCA). Both screenplay categories score materially worse than the other six, around 46 to 47 percent against 54 to 79 percent, which is why the headline hit rate reports the Core 6 separately rather than pooling all eight into one number. All accuracy figures use leave-one-year-out cross-validation, so no year influences its own prediction.