Oscar Forecasts
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Model limitations
The model only knows what has been announced, so early odds rest on weak signals and move once the guilds vote. It can't see campaigns, branch politics or second choices on the Best Picture ballot, and both screenplay categories are close to a coin flip.
Record · Winner hit rate 74% (178 picks · 30 yrs · 1997+ · Core 6) · Ranking accuracy (AUC-ROC) 0.911 · Probability error (Brier score) 0.081 How the model is scored
Note on model signal
The winner model uses precursor results from PGA, DGA, WGA, BAFTA, SAG, Golden
Globes, Critics' Choice, NYFCC, LAFCA, the Gotham Awards, and the Independent Spirit Awards. Before precursors announce, the
ranking rests on early signals: career pedigree, festival premieres, critic scores, and
release timing. Pre-season probabilities are low-confidence estimates.