Player Database

HoFW scores career production, peak value, honors, championships, and draft pedigree against a model trained on real Hall of Fame voting since 2005. It's separate from the Induction Forecast, which estimates what the committee will do under the Hall's selection rules, as rewritten for the one-category process that starts with the Class of 2027. Full methodology

Ballot Year:
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The base model is cross-validated on held-out player rows against induction outcomes from the Hall's pre-2027 process. Published scores use the final full-history fit.

AUC-ROC
0.998
real inductee vs. non-inductee, ranked correctly · 85 real inductees in the fit · pre-overhaul process
Ballot-calibrated AUC
0.788
among the 79 players who reached the ballot
Training set
—
modeled players in the fit
Real Hall of Famers that clear my bar
80
score Borderline tier or better on my model's own scale · 5 fall short

Read the full methodology

Career statistics and honors provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com and Stathead, collected by hand. Modern-era data from nflverse. Scores and forecasts are mine.