Who wins the Oscars?

Guild results help explain the Oscar race, but Academy voters can disagree. Explore the contenders and build your own ballot.

74% Winner hit rate 178 picks · 30 yrs · 1997+ · Core 6

  • Moonlight 2016 21% Won Best Picture
  • La La Land 2016 65% Lost to Moonlight
  • Parasite 2019 21% Won Best Picture
  • Get Out 2017 5% Lost to The Shape of Water
  • The Grand Budapest Hotel 2014 7% Lost to Birdman
  • Everything Everywhere All at Once 2022 86% Won Best Picture

Examples I picked from the record, not a forecast: the Best Picture odds the model gave each film before its ceremony, in a backtest where no ceremony predicted itself. Poster art from TMDB · not endorsed or certified by TMDB

Start here

  1. Learn the Nomination Process Branch nominations, the preferential ballot, and this season's dates. How the Academy votes
  2. The Forecast Nomination and win odds in eight categories, from the evidence so far. See the current odds
  3. Build Your Ballot in the Oscars Studio Choose nominees and winners, compare your ballot with the model, and share your picks. Open the studio

232 films in play, 10 nominated.

  1. 232 Films in play Every film the model scores for a nomination
  2. 10 Nomination slots Only these films reach the ballot
  3. 15 The model's order Ranked by modeled chance of a nomination
    1. 1 Project Hail Mary 38.0%26.0–50.0%
    2. 2 The Odyssey 37.9%25.9–49.9%
    3. 3 You Can See Everything 36.9%24.9–48.9%
    4. 4 Wildwood 36.0%24.0–48.0%
    5. 5 The Black Ball 33.7%21.7–45.7%
    6. 6 Wild Horse Nine 30.5%18.5–42.5%
    7. 7 I Play Rocky 30.5%18.5–42.5%
    8. 8 Possible Love 30.0%18.0–42.0%
    9. 9 Sense and Sensibility 29.5%17.5–41.5%
    10. 10 Disclosure Day 29.3%17.3–41.3%
    11. 11 Tenzing 28.1%16.1–40.1%
    12. 12 Digger 28.0%16.0–40.0%
    13. 13 Tuner 27.1%15.1–39.1%
    14. 14 Obsession 26.2%14.2–38.2%
    15. 15 The Only Living Pickpocket in New York 26.0%14.0–38.0%

    The other 217 films sit below these · See every contender

    Modeled nomination odds, Festival season · festival results and Gotham nominations added · Updated Nov 11 · low confidence · Tap a film for its range

What's next
Nov 12
Oscar general-entry submission deadline
Nov 15
Governors Awards
Early December 2026
Critics season
Dec 7–11
Preliminary voting (shortlisted categories)
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