The Academy Awards
Who wins the Academy?
Thousands of Academy members rank a ballot nobody outside the room ever sees. Start with how that vote actually works, see how close a model gets from precursor data alone, then build your own case as the studio comes together.
01The Academy Awards
Learn the Nomination Process
Branch nominations, the preferential ballot, why Best Picture is counted differently from every other category, and every confirmed date for the 99th Oscars.
How the Academy votes →
02The Academy Awards
Meet the Model
Now see how close a model gets. Win probabilities for all Big-8 categories, driven by the guild results and other precursors, tested against 30 years of ceremonies it never trained on and honest about where it misses.
See the record →
77% · Core 6, 1997+
03The Academy Awards
Build Your Ballot in the Oscars Studio
Predict who actually wins
Forty-five nomination slots across the Big 8. Fill them yourself, see exactly where you're betting against the model and what it costs you, then save the ballot and watch it get graded when the envelopes open.
Open the studio →
Alpha Access
77%
Winner hit rate
178 picks · 30 yrs · 1997+ · Core 6
0.900
AUC-ROC
discrimination
0.085
Brier score
calibration
Latest Projections
What's next
Sep 2–12
83rd Venice Film Festival
Sep 4–7
53rd Telluride Film Festival
Sep 10–20
TIFF 51
Dec 7–11
Preliminary voting (shortlisted categories)