The three decisions

The NCAA tournament field

Twelve committee members pick and seed 76 teams over a week of closed sessions, for the men's and the women's tournaments.

I compare team résumés to predict the field and seed list. You can see my bracket beside the published metrics and compare it with one you build in the studio.

The Pro Football Hall of Fame class

Twenty-five selectors cut a long nomination list down to a finalist slate, and a finalist needs 80 percent of the room to get in.

The HoFW model compares players with Hall members at the same position. A separate forecast estimates eventual induction and simulates the queue for each class. A strong career can still face a long wait.

The Academy Awards

About 10,000 Academy members vote, branch by branch for nominations and all together for the winners, on ballots nobody outside ever sees.

The model uses the evidence available at each stage of the season, from film and festival history to guild results. Its historical tests leave out the ceremony being predicted.

What you can do in a studio

Bracket Studio

Compare men's or women's team sheets side by side and place teams on your seed list. The available metrics change with the season.

Hall of Fame Studio

Run the committee's cuts yourself, from the eligible pool to semifinalists, finalists and your class. You can change the model's weights and watch the rankings move.

Oscars Studio

Pick nominees across eight categories, then winners once nominations are announced. Compare your ballot with the model's choices.

  • Saving: Your work saves in your browser as you go. Sign in with Google to keep it in sync across devices.
  • Sharing: Every studio makes a link you can post in the group chat before the real answer comes out.
  • Results: Once the field, the class or the winners are announced, you can put your version next to what happened. Oscar ballots get graded when the envelopes open. For brackets, the Bracket Performance Calculator scores how close you got to each team's seed line on the Paymon Scoring System.