The Record
Every model I run, with how accurate it has actually been. A forecast is only worth as much as its track record, so both live on the same page.
NCAA Men's Basketball
The Bracket Model
Now see how the forecast actually did. My final bracket before Selection Sunday, scored against the official NCAA field on exact seed placement, not just who made it.
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Final · 374 pts
NFL Hall of Fame
The Hall of Fame Model
Once you know how the real vote works, see how closely my model calls it. HoFW scores every player against the Hall's real bar at their position, validated against every class since 2005, with the misses published alongside the hits.
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0.999 AUC
The Academy Awards
The Oscars Model
Now see how close a model gets. Win probabilities for all Big-8 categories, driven by the guild results and other precursors, tested against 30 years of ceremonies it never trained on and honest about where it misses.
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77% · Core 6, 1997+
NCAA Women's Basketball
The Women's Bracket Model
Resume-first bracketology for the women's tournament, built on the same committee criteria. There is no record to publish yet because it has not forecast a season.
Coming Next Season
Soon
Every accuracy figure here is cross-validated, meaning the model was scored on results it never trained on. Where a number is a single season rather than a long backtest, the category's own page says so.